Who Is Governor Obiano’s Preferred Candidate?

-Ebuka Onyekwelu

Governor Obiano’s influence power in the politics of who becomes APGA flag bearer, and likely winner of the coming governorship election, has become glaring.

At first, it may appear a no brainer, except that the politics of succession, buzzing with intrigues, deception and confusion, is draining and unpredictable. A lot comes into play, deep reflection and due consideration. Importantly, the question of trust, towers above any, and all considerations based on competence.

Aside the more or less private conversations, with some people whom Obiano as alleged, has told his preferred candidate, Governor Obiano has not made his position known. Now, this is important and people must pay closer attention. Choice of successor to a sitting Governor is open and never a secret except if the governor has not decided. It is also not left to the guessing eyes, and assumptions of the public.

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Usually, the governor would inform members of the Executive Council made up of key officials of his Administration, as well as APGA members of the House of Assembly, his position and candidate of choice. By so doing, he builds a common front and solicit support for this his preferred candidate. This happens after he has reached a final conclusion, and for Obiano, as both the Governor and leader of APGA, on his choice of succesor. The decision is reached in conjunction with key stakeholders in the party.

But since this has not happened, what does it really mean? Is it correct to assume that the Governor has taken a position by proxy?

Now, politically speaking, so long as the governor has not made his position known by way of announcement to members of his executive council and other stakeholders, any assumption to the contrary is easily clear political miscalculation.

Even now, the reason APGA has not commenced the process of selecting a flag bearer for the coming governorship election is simply because, the process, which climax is Obiano’s position has not been placed on the table. In fact, as a matter of tact, this deliberate delay, would eventually become a rear-end knockout, that will leave interested parties with no option.

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But then, if, by way of political discernment, it stands to reason that Governor Obiano is still carefully weighing his options, perhaps yet to decide on his choice of successor. But if it happens that he has zeroed in on someone, then, just maybe biding his time, waiting for the most appropriate time to unveil his succession card. In any case, make no mistakes, Obiano must himself, unveil his choice of candidate, not only because he is the Governor, but he is also the leader of APGA.

The third possible scenario is nearly impossible. That is, a situation where the governor is disinterested in who takes over from him, and so approves of a free and fair primary election, where all aspirants will have level playing ground. Even this too, as awkward and odd as an option for the governor, must still be made public by him.

Governor Obiano is well vast in corporate governance, and very well understands power intrigues. Therefore, it is unlikely that he can be forced, coerced, manipulated or cajoled into adopting anyone less of his own choice, as his successor. It is also not correct to conclude that the Governor has spoken through others. It should also be observed that mixed signals, matter of tact, is an essential component of politics, and particularly so, in the best interests of a powerbroker.

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That Obiano has not made his choice public, calls for caution and introspection, for all players and observers. Even assuming Obiano did tell, and mentioned a preferred successor to a few people, sometime ago, but now, has not come forth to stand by his previous position, then, it is telling, like the Germans say, “temporar mutento” that is to say that times change and we change with them. Political realities are ever changing, as much as they are slippery. This, is a matter of fact.

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At the end, it is only when Obiano has unveiled his choice of successor, that he has done so. For now, political actors must pause and look, closely, because, to avert political mishaps, it is crucial not to run ahead of one’s shadow.

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