Anambra 2021: PDP Reacts As Appeal Court Confirms Ozigbo As Party Candidate

Five Reasons PDP Will Win Anambra 2021 Election

by Okechukwu
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On June 26th 2021, PDP chose Valentine Ozigbo as their flagbearer for the Anambra November 6th election. That same day, a faction of PDP selected Ogochukwu Uba, elder brother to PDP chieftain and godfather during Anambra’s worst period politically, Chris Uba as their flagbearer. PDP leadership has now made moves to reconcile the factions.

Whatever the reconciliation parley births, Valentine Ozigbo would remain the flagbearer of PDP comes November and we are making our analysis with him as the picture we see come November. It is usual for factions to be but INEC told us last week that we should look to the website for the names of the chairmen and secretaries of parties.

The chairman and secretary on INEC’s website are in support of the primary that produced Valentine Ozigbo. The Ozigbo primary would prevail at the end of the day. But would the Ozigbo candidacy prevail at the end of that fateful day in November?

Here five reasons PDP will win the November 6th 2021 elections. Politics is a fluid game and things can change quickly. If things remain as they are, PDP has a big chance of a glorious ending in November.

The popularity of PDP

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Anambra is a PDP state. They haven’t ruled the state for 16 years now, but this doesn’t tell the whole story. Since 1999, Anambra has elected senators 18 times, Only two or three times did they elect anyone outside of the PDP.  A glance at the list of the House of representatives members, past and present, is not far from a total PDP dominance.

Anambra its roots buried in the soul of PDP. The state elections are largely an APGA affair. Firstly because of the Okukwu connection and then the prudence of Peter Obi and a combination of the two. This helped APGA win in 2003 (a mandate they regained in 2006), and also win again in February 2010 and 2013.

The 2017 election was the first time the power of incumbency really worked in Anambra and Willie Obiano was re-elected. Now, Willie Obiano is not running and, while he may push Soludo, the damage they did to the party and Obiano’s unsatisfactory second term will deny them the consensus they need from the party and Ndi-Anambra respectively.

This gap now presents PDP with a golden opportunity to reclaim the power they held between 1999 and 2006 (and for 17 days in 2007).

The lack of duplication of PDP candidates in other parties

In February 2010 Anambra gubernatorial election, an interesting scenario played out.

In that election. Peter Obi of the APGA got 93,843 votes which represent 34.39% of the voters. Ngige of the ACN got 60,240 votes (21.17%) while Soludo of PDP came third with 59,355 (20.86%). Andy Uba of Labour Party, 26,106 (9.17%), and Uche Ekwunife of the Progressive People’s Alliance, PPA, 9,595 (3.37), etc.

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Now, Ngige, Andy Uba, Ekwunife, and Ukachukwu were all aggrieved PDP members who left the party to express their ambition. Now, if you sum the votes of all these candidates plus that of Soludo who flew PDP flag, you will get nearly 60%.

In 2010, nearly 60% of voters chose PDP or parties of ex-PDP members. But Peter Obi won a plurality because PDP was divided and was returned elected.

In November 2017, Willie Obiano was elected governor with less than 32% of the votes. Tony Nwoye of the PDP came second with 17.33 of the votes. This was the last election Ngige contested and he got 17% of the votes.

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At this stage, Ngige cannot be claimed as an aggrieved PDP member; he was now solid ACN but he was popular for what he achieved as a PDP governor, so it is still the truth to say that all PDP-related votes combined trumped APGA.

In November 2017, APGA got 55% of all votes cast. This was the sixth governorship election in Anambra and APGA won two – 2003 and 2017; PDP won two – 1999 and 2007 (cancelled); PDP and PDP aggrieved forces combined won two – 2010 and 2013.

In this 2021 election, all the participants of PDP primaries seemed to be staying on in the party after their loss and there is no big force who could leave PDP now and eat deep into PDP voters. If this remains so, PDP will likely prevail in November.

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The freshness of Val Ozigbo in Anambra politics

APC candidate, Andy Uba and APGA candidate Soludo have been in Anambra political space for more than a dozen of years each. Before then, Soludo had been governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria for five years. On his part, Andy Uba has been an influential adviser for President Obasanjo.

All elected governors of Anambra were relatively unknown until they contested. Who knew who Mr. Peter Obi was in 2003? Who knew the name of Willie Obiano before 2014? Anambra politics have not always favoured old faces.

Five Fast Facts About Valentine Ozigbo

And it is not just that Soludo and Andy Uba are old faces, they have political baggage. At the time of writing this, APC is still yet to recover from their tsunami primary. Opponents are unanimous in saying no primary was held; party leader Ngige is calling for cancelation. This troubles aside, their are political bigwigs who have sworn that Andy Uba will never be governor.

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There are people who are united in their belief and efforts that Soludo will not be governor. An ex-guber candidate has come out to swear that Soludo will never be governor. So far, Soludo seemed to have every big man who has made bold to declare for any candidate in his side. But his enemies still have strongholds and there is this myth that he is cursed against ever winning an election.

Valentine Ozigbo is a fresh face with a track record of getting things done. It will be hard trying to paint him as a worn out politician desperate to get his claws in Anambra treasury.

The failures of Obiano

Willie Obiano is an average governor at best. The only thing he can point at is that he built an airport for the state. A great feat, except that the airport is uncompleted. An airport is more than just about runways. At the state it is, the next governor will have to pour billions in order to turn this runway into an airport.

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Some will say he did well in security. Not just some, even Obiano himself takes glory for the relative security the state enjoys. This is arguably. Economically, Anambra is more viable than most states in the South East and if the crime rate is fewer than elsewhere one man sitting in the government house Awka taking the glory is rather farfetched.

The area where the average Anambraian judges Obiano is the aspect of infrastructure and WIllie didn’t cover himself in glory in this regard. Just before the 2021 election, Obiano send tractors to many Anambra roads and sometimes went as far as building gutters. After the election and his re-swearing in, the tractors left. And because the roads were now flattened, when it rains, the roads become rice paddies.

It is no uncommon to hear people say that Peter Obi’s major failure is giving Anambra Willie Obiano. He is considered that bad.

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People who consider Willie Obiano a failure will not vote for APGA’s candidate. The party next that will benefit the most is PDP.

The Catholic influence

If someone somewhere have sworn that only Catholics would produce the governors of Anambra State for ever, his vow is moving into the 17th year which would easily turn to 24 years. Some have attributed it to the powers of the Catholic bishops whose words carry fire and thunder.

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Valentine Ozigbo is a Catholic. He is the son of a Cathetist and he is not even a nominal Catholic. He is an ardent one who was said to have organized a Catholic Gospel Concert the size and reach that have not been seen in Africa before then and since.

To paraphrase “Game of Thrones”, the church remembers. Because Ozigbo is not the only Catholic running, the bishops might not publicly endorse him. But they don’t have to go that far. Whispers here and there and the right lift of an episcopal shoulder could send tens of thousands of votes his way.

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