The governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, revealed during an interactive session with the National Assembly joint committee that Nigeria is anticipated to receive less revenue from oil exports in 2024 as a result of a production cap set at 1.78 million barrels per day in the 2024 budget estimate.
Nigeria’s production has continuously fallen short of the 1.8 million barrels per day OPEC-approved level.
“We anticipate lower oil export revenue in 2024 as a result of the 1.78 Mbps production limit,” Cardoso said.
Cardoso blamed production stoppages, pipeline vandalism, theft of crude oil, and major oil corporations’ divestitures for the underperformance.
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The benchmark for oil production in the 2023 budget was 1.69 million barrels per day; however, in the third quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s maximum production level was just 1.35 million barrels per day.
Cardoso voiced hope in the domestic economy in 2024 despite the decline in oil revenue. He emphasised that it is anticipated that both inflation and exchange rates will stabilise despite varying influences.
“The outlook for the domestic economy remains positive and is expected to maintain a positive trajectory for 2024. Inflation pressures may persist in the short term but are expected to decline in 2024. Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce significantly with the smooth functioning of the foreign exchange market,” he said.
It was highlighted that the unification of currency rate windows in June 2023 was a good step towards lowering foreign exchange market speculation, rent-seeking, and arbitrage.
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“The policy aims at creating a market where the demand and supply of foreign exchange determines the exchange rate,” he disclosed.
“The premium has narrowed and our focus on increasing the autonomous FX supply would lead to more stability and further narrowing of the premium.”
Highlighting trade statistics, Cardoso noted that, “Total Trade in the third quarter of 2023 stood at N18.804.68billion. Exports were valued at N10.346.60 billion while total imports stood at N8.457.68 billion. This represents a positive trade balance, which would lead to an increase of the external reserves,” he added.
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