Five Reasons APGA Will Win Anambra 2021 Election

Of all the parties gearing for the November 6th, 2021 guber election in Anambra State, APGA, the ruling party is the most accursed. APC had a crazy primary in which numbers seemed to have been plugged from the air which has the party leader and primary candidates are mad. PDP has two factions. APGA has three candidates – there is the Jude Okeke faction, there is the Edozie Njoku candidacy, and there is Victor Oye’s Soludo.

For the sake of this analysis, we assume former CBN governor, Charles Soludo, will be the APGA candidate for November 6th. It is a safe assumption as INEC has told us to check their website for the names of the authentic party chairman/secretary. We did and Victor Oye’s name is there as the chairman. It will take a big force to dismiss Soludo’s candidacy. We just can’t see it happening.

The five reasons we chose as the influencing factors for Charles Soludo/APGA’s victory are not cast in concrete. Each of them can make the difference and each of them can, also, prove to be immaterial when it matters the most. Politics is a whether-game, it can be predictable to a certain point (a thick cloud for one does not always translate to a storm); but projections are still made, after that, the main politics takes over.

Ruling party factor

A ruling party hardly loses an election in Nigeria. To lose an election in Nigeria as a ruling party, you have to have done so much wrong or there is a stronger inside or outside force. You could say Obiano has been underwhelming but it is arguable to say he has done tsunamic harm to the party. Thus, the ruling party’s influence can still be a force in November 2021.

APGA has structures in Anambra State, strong structures, and they have near-rabid footsoldiers. We saw APGA at its peak in 2017 when they won 21/21 Local Government. Four years is a long time in politics but it is still recent enough for the reenactment of genius.

The fact that Winnie Obiano himself is not on the ballot and the fact that his second tenour was worse than his first would make APGA vulnerable. But it is hard to argue that this vulnerability would cost them Agu Awka. Of course, they won’t win 21 Local Government Areas and they don’t even need half of it to win. In fact, what Soludo needs is a plurality. Something like this:

APGA 31% of the votes

PDP 27% of the votes

YPP 16% of the votes

APC 12% of the votes

Labour Party 5% of the votes

Others 10%

If PDP and YPP or PDP and Labour votes are merged they would win; If others are joined together against APGA, APGA will be massacred. APGA victories in 2010 and 2013 are all pluralities (less than 35% of total votes cast in each case). While we don’t see APGA winning a majority, it is very unlikely to believe that they won’t cross the line first.

The Ojukwu’s party sentiment

Some will tell you that the only reason APGA is viable in Anambra State is because of Ojukwu, the sentiment of Ojukwu. They are not far from the truth. People in Anambra State still see APGA as the Igbo party. The fact that APGA only has the Anambra governor’s seat is a reason to doubt this Igbo party sentiment and it is also a reason to understand why Ndi-Anambra feel some kind of duty to protect this Ojukwu’s brainchild, Ojukwu’s legacy.

The popularity of PDP in Anambra State is so strong that only a big force can keep people in APGA. The force of Ojukwu is one. You can name the power of incumbency as another and tie this with the drive of money which (incumbency provides).

The Nnamdi Kanu’s arrest and persecution (perceived or otherwise, depending on you who you ask) would invoke Biafran memories. It might cost electoral apathy but the minority who would go to the polls as a protest would think APGA first.

The Catholic and Anglican tag team

When we analyzed PDP chances, we mentioned that the Catholic faith is a strong factor. Since two major candidates from friendly parties (PDP and APGA) are Catholics, there is the possibility that Catholics would share their votes. We will not rehash what we said about the power of Catholicism in Anambra and Anambra Catholic Bishops (see the post below).

Five Reasons PDP May Win Anambra 2021 Guber Race

What we would do is look for an additional advantage among the two Catholic candidates. The added advantage favours Soludo who has some form of support from Catholic main rivals, the Anglican community.

Anglican bishops are usually given the courtesy of choosing among their members a running mate for APGA candidates. Peter Obi’s second term governor Emeka Sibeudu was chosen by Anglican bishops. Willie Obiano’s deputy was chosen by Anglican bishops. Soludo’s current deputy  Dr. Onyekachukwu Ibezim was chosen by the Anglican Archbishop of Awka.

We are hearing that this selection angered Anglican bishops because there was no consultation and the Archbishop, Alexander Ibezim, chose his brother. We believe that they would come around in the end and support the Soludo-Ibezim ticket.

Even if they don’t, Anglicans would no longer have a unified force behind any other candidate. It may be farfetched to call this a Catholic and Anglican tag team but Soludo is expected to get a lot of Anglican votes as per the dual Ibezims’ connection.

Soludo’s name recognition

American politics makes a big deal about name recognition. Once you declare to run, they bring out their scales and tapes and weigh and measure your name recognition. Their logic is simple – if no one knows your name, no one will vote for you.

In Nigeria, it is not usually this simple. A totally unknown name can emerge weeks before the primaries, win a party’s primary and grab the seat on election day. Money and rigging have a lot of roles to play in this. In a normal election, where the power of incumbency is not of superior quality, everything counts. Name recognition counts.

Anambra is a peculiar state with so many big boys playing in a small space. Anambra needs a politician that can’t be easily intimidated and who has the clout to clip overreaching interests. That is what name recognition gives you – it makes people assume that you are not a pushover.

The fact that Soludo used to be a governor is an added feather to his political sagacity. He-can-do-it syndrome.

Charles Soludo’s financial might and connection

Don’t quote us but we hear that Charles Soludo has a bottomless sack with which he funds his campaign. Throughout the primary, Soludo relied on his financial might to push his candidate. There are whispers that he wasn’t the governor’s chosen candidate and that the governor only came on board the Soludo ship just before the makeshift primary election.

But Soludo was popular all through the waiting period and this isn’t all organic, not just by his name. Name recognitions don’t set post Soludo’s face on billboards, banners, and posters; name recognition doesn’t get so bring media mention – it requires a strong media team and content foot soldiers which only money can finance. Money does this. And there are more for the general election.

Money aside, Soludo has so much clout. It is a struggle to understand why Soludo has so much hold on the big-wigs of Anambra State, from Innoson to Ibeto, to Bianca Ojukwu, to the governor, to Victor Umeh, to the APGA hierarchy enough to disqualify all competition before the primary, etc. How did he get so many big-wigs on his side in a State with so many other big-wigs?

Perhaps, it is the fact that he has a very good chance of winning; perhaps, his track record at the central bank inspires confidence; and perhaps his financial muscle softens the pathway, whatever the reason, his connections would come to play in November and may just be the difference at the top of the ballot logs.

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